Responding to Dr. Eric Davis’s editorial in Newark Star Ledger
As Election Day nears, politicians, pundits and academics, all are scampering to offer their versions of how to “fix Iraq”. The spate of articles thus produced gives us an illuminating insight into how bankrupt the process of policy analysis is, given that most articles eschew facts and choose to invent arguments, and corroborating evidence as needed.
In the following paragraphs I will try to disembarrass the editorial, “In Iraq, democracy is the only option“, by Dr. Davis, “one of nation’s leading experts on Iraq’s economy” and a professor at Rutgers, of its countless logical and factual inaccuracies. Simultaneously, I plan to use this exercise to more substantively discuss America’s interests, and aims in Iraq and how best to achieve those in Iraq.
“Continued violence and loss of American lives make it understandable why much of the American public has lost confidence in efforts to create a democracy in Iraq. It also explains increasing support for withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country,” writes Dr. Davis in The Star Ledger published September 17th. Given that the loss of American life has been miniscule and violence in Iraq a relative non-issue for Americans, a vast majority of whom don’t care about either Iraq or Iraqis, the argumentation seems like a non-sequitur. The stated rationale also carefully side steps a crucial factor in the declining support – the fact Americans don’t see the point of being in Iraq given that there were never any WMDs. Dr. Davis, ever a careful academic, deliberately avoids stating this for it undercuts his argument, which comes later and is tangentially premised on the assumption that Americans care about Iraqis or should care about Iraqis.
Dr. Davis next posits why Iraq is important for American interests – oil and stability in Middle East (which in turn affect the price of oil). Noticeably absent are any humanitarian and democracy as a normative goal kind of objectives. When John Hopkins School of Public Health drops a 600,000 pound downer on you (here I refer to the report that since invasion a professor at John Hopkins estimates 600,000 plus more Iraqis have died as compared to if invasion hadn’t happened), I suppose humanitarian objectives must be safely avoided. Dr. Davis also chooses to avoid any discussion of Iraqi interests for perhaps American and Iraqi interests are just the same.
Next we have is a spread of possible options which have been limited to three– withdraw from Iraq, or divide Iraq into three statelets around Iraq’s three predominant ethnic groups, or “remaining in Iraq” till a democratic Iraq is “stabilized”. Dr. Davis presents them as distinct possibilities that don’t and more importantly can’t overlap.
Dr. Davis next discounts the first two possibilities to narrow down his alternatives to the “chosen one”. He details the perils of American military withdrawal including a chance that Baathists may regain power or that Iraq may be run by radical Shiites enraging Sunni majority neighboring countries. The proposition would be less ludicrous if Nouri Kamel al-Maliki, the current prime minister of Iraq wasn’t also the deputy leader of the radical Shia Islamic Dawa Party. Add to this that Syria, a prominent neighboring country, enjoys warm relations with Iran and will no doubt enjoy warm relations with a Shia led Iraq. The alternatives presented are predicated on the fact that American military (bye-word for “remaining in Iraq) can help stabilize Iraq, which may not be the case. It also remains unclear, why Dr. Davis thinks that American withdrawal will make things worse. Certainly when the Americans withdraw, negotiation between Iraqis might become more feasible, since one group would not perceive the other as simply an American puppet. Besides, one presumes that the favored government would continue to receive substantial military support (perhaps even air-power) from America or its “friends” in the middle-east. America would be removed as an obstacle, while still protecting its favored government through indirect military support.
Next he justifiably discounts the option of partitioning Iraq given concerns about resulting violence, reaction from Turkey, and anticipated heightened intervention from neighboring states.
We must now proceed to the crux of the essay that talks about “supporting democracy”. But first Dr. Davis responds to the Huntington supporters in the crowd who doubt whether Arabs are capable of having a democratic form of government. Dr. Davis, author of “Memories of State: Politics, History and Collective Identity in Modern Iraq”, argues that Iraq has a wonderful secular tradition dating back to the secular independence movement and harks on the traditionally peaceful co-existence between different sectarian groups within Iraq. One may argue that the sectarian bloodshed of the past three years has irrevocably stained the national fiber and that peaceful co-existence between communities remains doubtful at best.
To support Iraq’s case for a democratic future, Dr. Davis also tries to allay fears about Shias nationalism. He narrates the tale of tale of the Shia infantry fighting Iran suggests that suggest that he believes that the Shia fought from conviction or had a choice in the matter. I doubt that this was the case. Besides, it is surely peculiar that if such animosity existed, it would be superseded by an embrace of pro-Iranian parties. In any case the fact that the Shia have embraced pro-Iranian parties makes his argument superfluous.
Dr. Davis, next discusses, the specifics about what he means by “supporting democracy”. He here proposes a “New Deal” like arrangement. The comparison to any economic package for Iraq to “New Deal” is inaccurate at best. Iraq is different from depression era US in multiple ways. The best an economic reconstruction plan for Iraq can be compared to is Marshall Plan, which drew the ire of nationalists in countries where it was implemented. Of course the success of Marshall Plan like economic package is also highly doubtable given that Iraq differs from EU nations in multiple ways including active vested interests of neighboring countries around Iraq in its continued instability. Strong sectarian cleavages and accusations of bias can also hobble any economic activity in Iraq. I also do not see why American military forces are necessary for implementing a New Deal type approach.
The method of financing of the economic plan is inarguably the most jarring aspect of the paper. Dr. Davis argues that US must utilize help from Arab neighbors like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for these funds. He predicates this statement on the assumption that Iraqis identify themselves as Arabs and would welcome funding from Arab sources. Another implicit assumption here is that an Arab identified Iraq is in American interests. Let’s interrogate the claims individually.
Why is an Iran-friendly Iraq necessarily against American interests? The threat to America is from decentralized terrorist outfits rather than from strong states or “state-supported terrorism,” so called.
Would Iraqis, two-thirds of whom are Shia, welcome Arab intervention as compared to say intervention from Iran? Given that pro-Iran party is currently in power in Iraq, I highly doubt this to be the case.
Next we must ask why America needs such financial support. The newspaper teaser, “….expert…a plan for salvaging a future for lraq that won’t bankrupt the United States”, emphatically equates reconstruction of Iraq with the bankrupting of America. While the piece does not replicate this dramatic language it goes along with the notion that reconstruction of Iraq would involve unacceptable financial burdens. First then, it has to be understood what constitutes an unacceptable financial burden or the bankrupting of America. The U.S. total allocation of $18billion made a few years back, most of which has not yet been used, is 1/500 of the national debt. Recall that most of what has been spent has been spent only because they have started re-classifying money spent on Iraqi security forces as reconstruction funds. If one goes away from the bankruptcy terminology to that of undue financial burden, one needs to clarify the yardstick relative to which it would be a burden. I think that the most pertinent yardstick is the expense incurred in maintaining American forces. The amount spent in more than 3 years of reconstruction by America is I believe less than a fortnight’s expenses for the American military in Iraq. So, is 2% of military expenses unacceptable or is it 10% should be made clear at the outset.
Another set of numbers which should be dealt with are the possible reconstruction costs. Iraq’s population is over 20million, about half of which are men, and about half of which are in the working age group (18-55) (my guess, but it should be a reasonably good one), half of which again are unemployed (your Prof’s numbers here). This gives a grand total of 3million men unemployed and needing jobs. I know that Americans were paying Iraqi police officers around $100 in 03 (they
started by offering $60 but increase after the Iraqis refused to show up). I am guessing that for the kind of work suggested it is very unlikely that the costs per employee should exceed more than $2000 per year. If one is profligate and assumes high logistical costs, we could balloon this to $3000. Multiply that by the 3million Iraqis and you get $9 billion. My sense of course is that this is an unreasonably large number since providing direct employment to some will generate
employment for some others. $9 billion every year over ten years would
be less than one year’s military expenses in Iraq, and roughly 1% of
the national debt.
Let me end by saying what while policy making is a hard task that often times needs to balance patently irreconcilable interests while keeping an eye on the budget and the public mood, there is no reason that it should be based on shoddy premises and logical and factual inaccuracies.